中美关税大调整！美联储降息175基点，2026亚太货币要集体升值

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked discussions about the possibility of the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark by 2026, driven by three main factors and two significant concerns [1]. Group 1: External Monetary Policy - The direct driver of the RMB's recent appreciation is the global shift in monetary policy, highlighted by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, with a total reduction of 175 basis points in this cycle [4]. - The Fed's indication of further rate cuts in early 2026 has led to a weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index recently falling below 100, marking a year-to-date low [4]. - UBS's Chief Investment Officer for Greater China noted that the continued rate cuts by the Fed will result in the US dollar underperforming against G10 currencies, with an expected 2%-3% appreciation for Asia-Pacific currencies [6]. Group 2: Internal Policy Support - The core support for the RMB's appreciation comes from ongoing domestic policy efforts and improvements in economic fundamentals, with the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need to maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate [10]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected liquidity into the market through a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 15, marking the seventh consecutive month of such actions [12]. - Economic indicators show a recovery, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansion at 50.7 and retail sales growing by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a clear recovery in domestic demand [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The expectation of RMB appreciation has led to increased overseas investment in RMB assets, with northbound capital ETF transactions reaching 3.271 billion yuan on December 15, despite a slight decrease from the previous period [14]. - The concentration of corporate demand for currency exchange at year-end has further strengthened the RMB, with a 12% increase in foreign exchange transaction volume on December 8 [16]. - Market experts generally hold optimistic views on the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark by 2026, with predictions ranging from 6.9 to 6.5 by the end of 2026, although some analysts remain cautious about the pace of appreciation [17][20].