布油跌破60美元：俄乌停火预期升温，库存过剩难题浮出水面

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices continue to decline, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel and WTI near $55, driven by reduced concerns over Russian oil supply disruptions amid rising ceasefire expectations and a global oversupply of crude oil [1][4]. Supply Side - The EIA and IEA have warned of unprecedented oversupply in the market, with global inventories reaching a four-year high [5]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels, but the decline was less than expected, and inventories in the Cushing area rose for the first time in a month despite refinery utilization being at its strongest level for this time of year since 2018 [5]. - The 3-2-1 crack spread has fallen to its lowest level since February, indicating ample supply in the refining system as gasoline and diesel margins have declined [5]. Demand Side - U.S. gasoline demand has weakened ahead of year-end, currently down 1.3% compared to the same period last year [7]. - Distillate demand has surged due to cold weather heating needs, returning above 2024 levels, while aviation fuel has recovered from previous lows [7]. - Globally, China's apparent oil demand increased by 4.5% year-on-year in November, but the Middle Eastern spot market is weakening, with Murban crude's premium to Brent narrowing to its lowest level since early October [7]. Market Sentiment - Market positioning and volatility data highlight a strong bearish sentiment, with fund managers reducing net long positions in Brent crude to the lowest level since the end of October [3]. - The WTI next-month implied volatility has dropped to its lowest level since April, indicating a clear bearish bias in options [3].