Options Corner: TSLA's Test Toward All-Time Highs

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has shown a significant recovery, nearing its all-time highs from last December, with a notable increase of approximately 10% in December alone, driven by a shift in perception towards its business model as a robo-taxi and humanoid robot company rather than just an EV maker [1][2]. Stock Performance - The stock is currently trading around $472, approaching the previous high of $488 from last December, and is above both the 50-day moving average of $436 and the 200-day moving average of $346, indicating strong upward momentum [3][4]. - The stock has experienced a parabolic move since the lows in April, with support levels identified around $440 and $425, alongside the 200-day moving average acting as a significant support area [5][6]. Trading Strategy - A suggested trading strategy involves selling an out-of-the-money 450 strike put while buying a 430 strike put, creating a neutral to bullish put vertical spread. This strategy aims to capitalize on the higher implied volatility while maintaining a defined risk profile [7][8]. - The trade could yield a credit of approximately $5, with a risk of $1,500 and a break-even point at $445, which is about 5.6% below the current share price, providing a favorable probability of success [9][10][11]. - The probability of the short 450 strike being out of the money at expiration is estimated at 67%, making this a high-probability trade for those bullish on Tesla [12].