全球“廉价资金”末日来临？日本加息暗藏三大杀招，中国如何接招？

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's monetary normalization is anticipated as a black swan event, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75% [1][2][25] - This rate increase marks a significant change for the yen, reaching levels not seen since 1995, which could disrupt the global cheap funding environment [3][10] - Japan's core CPI has remained above the central bank's 2% target for 28 consecutive months, indicating a shift from deflation to inflation driven by wage increases in the service sector [7][9][12] Group 2 - The output gap in Japan has been positive for three consecutive quarters, suggesting that demand is exceeding supply, leading to a resurgence in consumer spending [11][12] - The current interest rates in Japan are significantly lower than those in the US, creating a mismatch with inflation rates, which could lead to market corrections [14][16] - The Japanese government has a debt of 1,333.6 trillion yen, with interest payments consuming 22.4% of the budget, raising concerns about the impact of rate hikes on fiscal sustainability [21] Group 3 - A 25 basis point rate hike could lead to a significant tightening of global liquidity, affecting emerging markets and potentially causing capital outflows [44][50] - Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, and a shift in interest rates could accelerate the trend of selling US debt [41] - The anticipated rate hike could lead to a negative impact on high-valuation tech stocks globally, as liquidity conditions tighten [50] Group 4 - For Japanese banks, the rate hike is expected to improve net interest margins, with Mitsubishi UFJ Bank predicting a profit increase of 480 billion yen due to the rate change [53][54] - However, the real estate market, which has benefited from low mortgage rates, may face challenges as higher rates could lead to a decrease in new home transactions by 12% [56] - Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with increased borrowing costs, potentially leading to higher bankruptcy rates and unemployment [58]