Will Falling Gold Production Weigh on Newmont's Q4 Performance?

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) experienced a decline in gold production for Q3 2025, with a 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decrease, totaling 1.42 million ounces, marking the third consecutive quarter of production decline [1][7]. Production Factors - The reduction in production was attributed to lower grades, planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the cessation of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. Additionally, strategic asset sales aimed at focusing on Tier-1 operations have impacted production levels [2][7]. Future Production Expectations - Newmont anticipates maintaining its gold production target for 2025 at approximately 5.9 million ounces. For Q4, production is expected to be around 1.415 million ounces, which represents a projected 25% year-over-year decline [3][7]. Competitive Landscape - Barrick Mining Corporation reported a 12% year-over-year decline in Q3 2025 gold production to 829,000 ounces, primarily due to the suspension of operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Barrick expects its full-year production to be in the lower end of the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces [4]. - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited's payable gold production was 866,963 ounces in Q3, slightly up from the previous year. The company maintains its full-year production expectations between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces [5]. Stock Performance - Newmont's shares have increased by 70.5% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which rose by 56.8%, largely due to a rally in gold prices [6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 74.1% and 16.6%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [8]. Valuation Metrics - Newmont is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.2, which is approximately 4.6% higher than the industry average of 13.57X, and holds a Value Score of B [9]. Stock Ranking - Newmont stock is currently rated with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [11].