Morgan Stanley Downgrades Allstate to Equalweight on Competitive Pressures

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley downgraded Allstate to Equalweight from Overweight and lowered its price target to $215 due to a more competitive operating environment and a maturing investment thesis [1] Group 1: Investment Thesis - The previous investment case for Allstate, which was based on attractive valuation, improving growth, and margins exceeding consensus expectations, has largely played out [2] - Steady earnings from Allstate's homeowners insurance business are expected to provide some support in 2026, but rising competition necessitates a neutral stance [2] Group 2: Price Target and Valuation - Morgan Stanley reduced its price target to $215 per share, applying an estimated 8.9x price-to-earnings multiple to projected 2027 earnings per share of $24.07, reflecting a softening auto underwriting cycle [3] - The new target implies an estimated 1.6x price-to-book valuation, excluding AOCI, based on a projected 2027 operating return on equity of 18.5% [3]