全球资本“用脚投票”：攻破7.05，人民币拿下“关键一战”

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates, breaking through the 7.05 mark against the USD, reflects a significant vote of confidence from global capital regarding China's economic outlook [1][3]. Exchange Rate Breakthrough - On December 15, the RMB continued its upward trend against the USD, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0497 and the offshore rate reaching 7.0460, marking a notable recovery from earlier lows [1][3]. - The RMB's midpoint rate was reported at 7.0656, a decrease of 18 basis points from the previous trading day, while intra-day gains for the onshore and offshore RMB were nearly 200 and over 150 basis points, respectively [3]. Capital Flow Shift - The improvement in China's economic fundamentals and policy environment has led international investors to reassess the value of RMB-denominated assets, contributing to the recent appreciation of the currency [4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts approximately $200 billion in capital inflows into the Chinese stock market over the next 12 months, indicating renewed global confidence in China's economic resilience [5]. Weakening Dollar - The depreciation of the USD has created favorable conditions for non-USD currencies, including the RMB, to appreciate [6]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the USD index has fallen by over 8%, with concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and debt further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [6]. Policy Support - The stability and gradual appreciation of the RMB are supported by prudent and effective management from Chinese monetary authorities, aiming to maintain the currency at a reasonable and balanced level [7]. - The People's Bank of China has issued offshore RMB central bank bills to guide offshore market interest rates and stabilize market expectations [7]. Economic Resilience - The RMB's strong performance is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals, with China's GDP growth in Q1 2025 reaching 5.4%, surpassing both the previous year's growth and market expectations [9]. - Active fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies have provided robust support for economic stability, with key indicators such as fixed asset investment and retail sales showing positive growth [9]. Future Outlook - Market analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the RMB's future trajectory, with predictions of a stronger exchange rate in the short term [10]. - The RMB is gradually shifting from being an optional asset to a necessary one in global reserve asset allocation, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves rising to around 3% [10].