降准降息等稳增长政策出台概率上升｜宏观晚6点

Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance residents' consumption willingness and capacity, and to actively expand effective investment space [1] - The commission plans to focus on releasing residents' consumption potential and implementing special actions to boost consumption [1] - There will be efforts to stabilize major consumption and implement policies for replacing old consumer goods [1] Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizes the need to effectively prevent and resolve various financial risks, controlling new risks and managing existing ones [2] - The approach includes tailored strategies for each enterprise and accelerating the resolution of financial risks related to key real estate companies [2] - There will be a crackdown on illegal financial activities and enhanced inter-departmental collaboration for risk identification and rapid response [2] Group 3: Currency Exchange Rates - The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a new high since October 2024, peaking at 7.04 [5] - The onshore RMB also hit a maximum of 7.04 against the US dollar, marking a new high since October 2024 [5] Group 4: Economic Projections - A prediction states that it is entirely possible for China's per capita GDP to reach $23,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of 5% over the next 11 years [6] - The current economic conditions suggest that the growth rate needed may be higher than 5% due to a decline in total population [6] - The forecast does not consider exchange rate fluctuations or significant inflation issues in the coming years [6] Group 5: Market Policy Outlook - There is an expectation for more policies to be introduced to support the construction of a large domestic market [7]