日本GDP降幅超预期

Economic Performance - Japan's GDP for Q3 has been revised to a contraction of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decline of 2.3%, marking the first shrinkage in six quarters and indicating significant economic pressure [2] - The downward revision was primarily driven by a shift in corporate capital expenditure from a preliminary growth of 1.0% to a decline of 0.2%, reflecting corporate caution amid uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [2] External Demand - External demand contributed negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points, with the U.S. market accounting for approximately 20% of Japan's total exports [2] - The U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on most goods imported from Japan, significantly higher than the previous 2% to 3% levels, leading to a continuous decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. for seven consecutive months, particularly affecting the automotive, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and pharmaceuticals sectors [2] Internal Demand - Internal demand also negatively impacted Japan's economic growth by 0.4 percentage points, with personal consumption, which constitutes over half of the economy, only slightly increasing by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, insufficient to support overall economic growth [3] - Despite nominal wage growth, real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 0.7% year-on-year in October, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline, as income growth has not kept pace with inflation [3] Monetary Policy Implications - The current economic data is unlikely to alter the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trajectory, which could increase social funding costs, weaken corporate investment willingness, and further dampen economic vitality, leading to a less optimistic economic outlook for Japan [3]