免签红利+万亿缺口，中国卖家猛攻俄罗斯电商

Core Insights - Russia has exempted Chinese citizens from visa requirements for various purposes, including tourism and cultural activities, marking a significant step in strengthening bilateral relations [3] - The Russian e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with online retail sales reaching 4.4 trillion rubles (approximately 400 billion RMB) in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 39% year-on-year increase [3] - The geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created a substantial market gap, presenting new opportunities for Chinese goods with supply chain advantages [3] Economic Overview - The Russian economy is under pressure, with the central bank selling gold reserves to meet budgetary needs, reducing its gold reserves from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons since the onset of the conflict [4][5] - The fiscal deficit for Russia reached 3.69 trillion rubles (approximately 325.5 billion RMB) in the first half of the year, over five times the deficit for the same period in 2024 [5] - The Russian government is expected to spend at least 16.55 trillion rubles (approximately 1.4715 trillion RMB) on military-related expenditures in 2025 [5] Currency and Payment Challenges - The ongoing conflict has led to significant currency fluctuations, with the ruble experiencing volatility of up to 50% annually, impacting merchants' profitability [6] - The ruble has appreciated over 40% against the dollar in 2025, but geopolitical risks remain a critical factor influencing its value [6][7] - Payment processing has been disrupted due to sanctions, with fewer banks willing to engage in transactions involving Russian funds, although some local banks are beginning to accept payments from Russia [7][8] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics landscape has been reshaped by the conflict, with transportation costs increasing by 69% over the past three years due to the need for new infrastructure and alternative routes [8] - Ozon has established fulfillment centers in ten Chinese cities and is optimizing logistics services for cross-border sellers, potentially reducing logistics costs by about 40% [9] - The platform is also enhancing return policies to alleviate operational costs for Chinese sellers, allowing for easier re-listing of returned items [9] Marketing and Brand Localization - The tightening of control over foreign social media platforms has led to a shift towards local platforms like VK and Telegram for brand marketing in Russia [10][11] - Ozon plans to launch the "Ozon Alliance Program" in 2026 to connect Chinese sellers with over 1 million KOLs on VK, facilitating off-site traffic generation [11] - The restructuring of the Russian e-commerce market necessitates adaptation to new operational rules, with early adopters likely to benefit from growth opportunities [11]