美元储备创30年新低！霸权时代要结束了？人民币国际化任重道远

Group 1 - The core argument discusses the potential shift in the global currency landscape, questioning whether the era of US dollar dominance is coming to an end and if the renminbi is set to rise [1] - The global currency market is experiencing a tension between the desire for change and the difficulty of achieving it, as emerging economies seek to challenge the dollar's dominance [3][5] - The transition in the global currency system is gradual, with the dollar having established itself as the primary currency due to the US's economic strength and the depth of its financial markets [7][9] Group 2 - The renminbi's internationalization is progressing steadily, with more countries looking to diversify their currency reserves, although the dollar still holds significant power in international settlements and reserves [11][25] - The dollar's strength is supported by robust economic indicators in the US, with expectations of a controlled reduction in interest rates rather than a drastic decline [13][16] - The dollar's status as a safe haven remains unchallenged, as geopolitical risks and economic recovery vary globally, making it a preferred choice for investors [18][20] Group 3 - The renminbi faces challenges, including a lack of strong internal support due to sluggish economic recovery in China, with indicators like CPI and PPI showing weakness [22] - The future of the global currency landscape is likely to evolve slowly, with the dollar remaining dominant while other currencies, including the renminbi, play supplementary roles [25][34] - Long-term prospects for the renminbi depend on China's economic transformation and the opening of its financial system, which includes achieving capital flow freedom and market-oriented reforms [25][27]