供需结构偏弱 沥青弱势难改

Group 1 - Domestic refinery capacity utilization is steadily increasing, but asphalt supply pressure remains significant. With the onset of colder weather, road construction has stalled, leading to weakened asphalt demand and a gradual increase in social inventory [1] - Global crude oil inventories are accumulating, leading to a supply surplus expectation that dominates the crude oil futures market. U.S. crude oil production continues to reach historical highs, driven by shale oil technology advancements and policy support. Although OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases until Q1 2026, prior cumulative increases have already offset earlier production cuts [2] - Despite some refineries reducing asphalt production, overall domestic asphalt capacity utilization has only seen a limited decline. As of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate for 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 29.9%, down 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [3] Group 2 - The downstream sector is entering a low-demand season, with reduced asphalt road surface construction due to a new wave of cold air. Significant decreases in shipments are observed in Northeast and East China regions [4] - The domestic asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased, particularly in East China, where some projects are in the final stages, focusing on inventory consumption [4] - Overall, the combination of significantly lower domestic and international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for asphalt. With steady supply pressure and a weak demand backdrop, the outlook for domestic asphalt futures is expected to remain weak [4]