美国就业整体降温 核心消费指标显韧性

Group 1: Employment Data - In November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000, surpassing market expectations of 50,000, ending a significant decline in October [1] - October's non-farm employment was revised from a projected decline of 25,000 to a substantial drop of 105,000, marking the largest monthly decline in recent times [1] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5%, indicating a marginal weakening in the labor market's absorption capacity [1] Group 2: Retail Sales Data - October retail sales remained flat month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.1% growth, while September data was revised upward to a 0.1% increase [2] - Core retail sales, excluding auto dealers and gas stations, grew by 0.5%, exceeding the expected 0.4%, highlighting consumer strength after removing volatile factors [2] - Eight out of thirteen retail categories experienced growth, with department stores and online retailers performing particularly well due to competitive promotions ahead of the holiday shopping season [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The strong performance of core retail data suggests that consumer demand has not weakened in tandem with employment fluctuations, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2] - The overall cooling of the labor market and prior data revisions may reinforce market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, especially given the significant decline in October employment [2] - The resilience of core consumption indicators may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach regarding the extent of rate cuts to avoid triggering inflationary pressures [2]