天风证券：2026年信贷前置倾向将更加明显，对开门红贷款偏乐观

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that by 2026, the tendency for credit pre-positioning will become more pronounced, with an optimistic outlook for the "opening red" loans [1] - General deposits may still be impacted by the maturity of high-interest fixed deposits and the diversion effect from the rising stock market, leading to a potential further expansion of the asset-liability gap in Q1 [1] - It is expected that the central bank will increase its efforts to support the base currency, with enhanced measures such as MDS, MLF, and government bond transactions [1] Group 2 - Although there will be some tightening in the funding environment, it is not anticipated to reach the sustained tension seen in Q1 2025 [1] - By Q4 2025, banks may proactively prepare for increased funding needs in Q1 2026 by expanding the issuance of 6-month interbank certificates of deposit and reverse repos [1] - A significant decline in credit is expected in Q2 2026, potentially triggering "recession-style easing," with the credit increment ratio in Q2-Q4 anticipated to further decrease compared to previous years [1]