Prediction: Nvidia Will Become a $15 Trillion Company in 2030

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to continue outperforming the market, with a potential market cap of $15 trillion in the next five years, which may be a conservative estimate given its current growth trajectory [1][2]. Market Performance - Nvidia has seen a remarkable rise, becoming the world's largest company by market cap, reaching $4.4 trillion after a significant pullback from its $5 trillion milestone [1][4]. - The stock has increased over 1,400% since its low of approximately $290 billion in October 2022, surpassing both Apple and Microsoft in market cap [4]. Growth Projections - The AI chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% through 2030, which could lead Nvidia to a market cap of around $15.7 trillion if it maintains this growth [6]. - Nvidia's revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 was $148 billion, reflecting a 62% growth rate, although this is a decrease from the previous year's 94% growth [6][9]. Valuation and Competition - Nvidia's current P/E ratio of 45 is considered low for a fast-growing company, but it is expected to align more closely with the S&P 500 average of 31 over time, which could slow stock growth [10]. - Nvidia currently holds an estimated 80% market share in the AI chip market, but competition is increasing, particularly from AMD, which is making significant investments to capture market share [11][12]. Future Considerations - While a $15 trillion market cap in five years is seen as realistic, growth rates are likely to slow, and competition from AMD and others could impact Nvidia's market share and growth [13][14]. - Nvidia remains a leader in AI accelerators, and even with a slowdown, it is expected to provide market-beating returns for shareholders [15].