Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-12-17 00:35Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in coking coal futures and spot prices, with the 2601 contract experiencing the largest drop, attributed to three main factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures are under pressure due to delivery warehouse inventory issues, with the current cost of Mongolian coal at 952 CNY/ton leading to a theoretical warehouse cost of approximately 1050 CNY/ton, resulting in a delivery discount of about 100 CNY/ton [1]. - The increase in Mongolian coal imports, with weekly truck traffic reaching nearly 14,000 vehicles, represents a 58% month-on-month growth, reversing previous supply shortages [2]. - Weak demand from downstream steel production, with iron output decreasing by approximately 19,000 tons since early November, has led to a significant reduction in inventory replenishment needs [2]. Group 2: Price Influences - The decline in coking coal prices is exacerbated by a weaker thermal coal market, with national electricity consumption showing a negative year-on-year growth rate [2][4]. - The price drop in coking coal is estimated to be influenced by warehouse factors (approximately 100 CNY/ton), thermal coal price declines (around 75 CNY/ton), and market sentiment (about 205 CNY/ton), with respective contributions of 26.3%, 19.7%, and 53.9% [4]. - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal has fluctuated, indicating that the decline in coking coal prices is not solely driven by thermal coal [4]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The potential for reduced imports of seaborne coal is increasing as the profitability of Australian coal imports has shifted from a profit of 155 CNY/ton to a loss, while the profit margin for long-term Mongolian coal contracts has narrowed to 190 CNY/ton [4]. - The overall supply situation is expected to remain weak, with domestic production typically declining towards the end of the year, limiting further increases in Mongolian coal supply [3].