美联储1月议息预测：维持不变的概率77%

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the future [1] Group 1: January Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates is 77% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21% [1] - Probability of a rate cut exceeding 50 basis points is 1.7% [1] - Probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points or more is 1.3% [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Probability of cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points by 2026 is 24% [1] - Probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 19% [1] - Probability of a 100 basis point rate cut is 14% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11% [1]