Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-17 01:04Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that certain high-end consumer sectors in China, including luxury goods, high-end beauty, air travel, and high-end residential markets in core cities, have generally outperformed previous market expectations, reflecting a significant "K-shaped recovery" in the consumer market [1] High-End Consumer Sectors - The luxury goods and high-end beauty market in China showed signs of stabilization in Q3 2025, entering a gradual recovery phase, with top brands like Hermès maintaining steady sales due to high customer loyalty [6] - The Macau gaming sector demonstrated a notable recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) in November increasing by 14.4% year-on-year to 21.09 billion MOP, recovering to 92% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019 [4] - The high-end retail properties and luxury hotels have achieved a leading recovery in foot traffic and revenue due to their scarcity and brand barriers, despite overall demand pressures [1][4] Policy and Market Dynamics - Policy improvements, such as the optimization of the offshore duty-free policy and the upcoming closure of Hainan, are expected to create potential incremental space for growth in the luxury sector [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization in driving operational turning points, particularly in high-end consumption areas like outbound tourism, hotels, gaming, and luxury goods [1][15] Real Estate Market - The high-end real estate market is characterized by a "K-shaped recovery" driven by quality supply, with capital and purchasing power increasingly concentrating on top projects with absolute advantages in location, product, brand, and operation [9] - The overall recovery in the real estate market remains slow, with a complex macro environment and high unemployment rates impacting consumer confidence [7] Hotel Industry - The mid-to-high-end hotel sector saw an average RevPAR increase of approximately 4% year-on-year in October-November 2025, benefiting from strong leisure tourism and a slight recovery in business demand [11] - The supply growth in the hotel industry is expected to slow down from 7%-8% in 2025 to 5%-6% in 2026 due to extended investment return cycles [11] Duty-Free Market - The offshore duty-free sales in Hainan showed signs of recovery, with sales turning positive in September and expanding in October-November, supported by wealth effect transmission and policy optimization [12] - The upcoming full closure of Hainan in December 2025 is anticipated to further enhance the overall development of the tourism retail market [12] Aviation Sector - The aviation industry faces supply constraints due to delays in aircraft introductions and engine repairs, which limit effective capacity growth [14] - Demand recovery and structural optimization are expected to accelerate, with airlines optimizing route structures to enhance profitability [14]