金属涨跌互现 期铜收跌，年底流动性稀缺加剧波幅【12月16日LME收盘】

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have declined due to investor assessment of recent U.S. employment data, with year-end liquidity issues exacerbating price volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - On December 16, LME three-month copper fell by $63.5, or 0.54%, closing at $11,592 per ton [1][2]. - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,952 last week due to concerns over supply tightness [3]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by over 30%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009, driven by mining disruptions and rising demand expectations from AI data centers and energy transition [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a combined loss of 41,000 jobs for October and November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021 [3]. - The report was affected by data collection issues during the government shutdown, marking the first instance of missing monthly unemployment rate data since the survey began in 1948 [3]. Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum rose by $10.5, or 0.37%, closing at $2,876.5 per ton, supported by a decrease in registered aluminum warehouse stocks [2][4]. - LME three-month zinc fell by $52, or 1.68%, closing at $3,041.5 per ton, while lead prices increased slightly by $1, or 0.05%, to $1,942 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month nickel decreased by $83, or 0.58%, closing at $14,263 per ton, having reached an eight-month low earlier [6]. Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts a shift from surplus to shortage in the copper market by 2025, with a projected shortfall of 260,000 tons [4]. - The firm has adjusted its price forecasts for aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead for 2026, expecting aluminum prices to be around $3,250 per ton and zinc to slightly decline to $2,900 per ton [7].