Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year and month-on-month were recorded at 3.5% and 0.1%, respectively, both below expectations [1] Group 2 - The October non-farm payrolls saw a decline of 105,000, the largest drop since the end of 2020, against a market expectation of a decrease of 25,000 [1] - Retail sales in October unexpectedly showed zero growth, missing the expected 0.1% increase, with the previous value revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Following the employment and retail sales data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January increased from 22% to 31% [1] - The market still anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected easing of 58 basis points next year [1] Group 4 - Analysts noted that the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely negative due to an increase in labor participation rate [4] - The White House economic advisor reassured that the rise in unemployment is statistically insignificant and should not be overinterpreted [4] - The private sector's average job increase over the past six months remained at 44,000, indicating the slowest hiring pace in the post-pandemic reopening period [5] Group 5 - Wage growth has slowed to 3.5%, the lowest level in the current cycle, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future actions [6] - The labor market remains characterized by low hiring and layoff numbers, presenting a complex situation for the Federal Reserve in balancing labor market stability and inflation control [5]
非农有喜有忧 11月失业率升至四年新高 美联储明年降息预期升温
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-12-17 01:09