预计美联储将在明年1月暂停降息

Group 1 - Citic Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in January 2024, despite mixed employment data in November [1] - The November non-farm payrolls showed a significant decrease, influenced by federal employees opting for a "delayed resignation" program, which affected overall employment figures [1] - The report indicates that if the unemployment rate does not continue to rise in December, the Federal Reserve will likely view the current policy rate as "well positioned" [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities highlights that the current valuation of the securities sector is at a historical low, with mid-to-long-term capital entering the market rapidly, maintaining high market activity [2] - The capital market is exhibiting a "healthy bull" trend, driven by wealth management transformation, international business expansion, and financial technology empowerment [2] - The sector is positioned for both defensive rebounds and offensive strategies due to its low valuation [2] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities notes that in the absence of a technology rotation, there is a focus on the high-low cut logic within the consumer sector [3] - As of December, the market's willingness to chase technology stocks has decreased, while funds are still attempting to break out [3] - Consumer growth has slowed according to November economic data, and with the central economic work conference prioritizing "demand-led growth" for 2026, there are expectations for policy enhancements [3]