多机构预测明年全球锂市场将供不应求，有何缘由？

Group 1 - The global lithium market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2024, attracting significant industry attention [2] - The electric vehicle (EV) market is projected to reach approximately 22 million units by 2026, with a market penetration rate nearing 30%, leading to a demand for 3,115 GWh of power batteries [3] - Solid-state batteries are emerging as a new highlight in battery technology, with lithium consumption per unit increasing by 22% and 45% compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries [3][4] Group 2 - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with major companies like Toyota and Samsung SDI investing heavily in R&D [4] - Solid-state batteries are expected to significantly increase lithium demand, with a potential need for 336 medium-sized lithium mines by 2035 if they capture 30% of the global battery market [4] - Current lithium mining capacity can only meet 50% of the projected global demand by 2030, highlighting a significant supply gap [5] Group 3 - The rising demand for lithium is expected to increase the cost of lithium carbonate to $17,000 per ton by 2026, a 70% increase from 2025 [6] - The cost of lithium is projected to account for over 40% of the total cost of electric vehicles, reversing the recent profit recovery for automakers [6] - Automakers are increasingly investing directly in lithium mining to secure supply chains, with companies like Stellantis acquiring stakes in lithium mining firms [7] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance in the lithium market will test the resilience of the global automotive industry, requiring a balance between cost control, technological preparedness, and supply chain security [8] - Policymakers face challenges in balancing environmental goals with industry realities as lithium becomes a strategic focus for the electric vehicle sector [8]