美国11月非农揭晓！美联储降息概率加大！有色龙头ETF（159876）盘中上探1.92%，盛新锂能涨逾7%

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) indicates positive market sentiment towards the nonferrous metal sector, with significant capital inflows and a growing fund size [1][8]. Fund Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 1.81%, with a peak intraday gain of 1.92% on December 17 [1][8]. - The ETF attracted 10.13 million yuan in a single day and has accumulated 198 million yuan over the past 20 days, reflecting strong investor interest [1][8]. - As of December 16, the ETF's total size reached 840 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1][8]. Component Stocks - Key stocks within the ETF include Guocheng Mining, which hit the daily limit, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which rose over 7%. Other notable performers include Zhongkuang Resources and Yahua Group, both gaining over 5% [3][11]. Market Conditions - The U.S. job market showed weakness, with only 64,000 new non-farm jobs added in November and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest in four years [4][9]. - Analysts suggest that the labor market is "gradually cooling," which may influence Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 [4][9]. - Citic Securities believes that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for nonferrous metal prices [4][9]. Future Outlook - The potential for a super cycle in nonferrous metals is contingent on three factors: the recovery of U.S. dollar credit, the progress of strategic reserves, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [4][9]. - The current environment of a weak dollar, supportive policies, and industrial upgrades suggests a favorable outlook for the upcoming "spring market" [5][9]. - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF provides broad coverage across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it a suitable option for diversifying risk within investment portfolios [5][13].