金荣中国：美11月失业率创四年新高，金价冲高无果陷入高位震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices maintained a volatile trend, opening at $4318.16 per ounce, reaching a high of $4335.04, a low of $4271.43, and closing at $4319.66 [1] Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, following a decrease of 105,000 in October, marking the largest drop since the end of 2020 [3][4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since 2021, up from 4.4% in September [3][4][5] - The report indicates a labor market situation similar to previous trends, with low hiring and firing numbers, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about the sustainability of employment conditions, with expectations of maintaining interest rates through 2026 to address persistent inflation [5][9] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in January are around 20%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 43.5% by March [10][7] Economic Growth Indicators - Recent PMI data suggests a loss of momentum in economic growth, with GDP growth for Q4 projected at approximately 2.5%, but showing signs of slowdown [6] - Service sector new orders have nearly stagnated, and factory orders have seen their first decline in nearly a year, indicating potential economic activity slowdown entering 2026 [6] Market Reactions - The rise in unemployment rate has led to increased expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with U.S. Treasury prices slightly rising and yields on various maturities declining [7][9] - The market is particularly focused on wage growth, which has slowed to 3.5%, the lowest in the current cycle, influencing the Fed's potential actions [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 1,051.69 tons, indicating stable investor interest in gold amid economic uncertainties [10]