美国高院的关税裁决将至，特朗普频繁发声警告，他预感要输？

Core Viewpoint - The fate of the Trump administration's signature tariff policy hinges on a critical ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, with increasing indications that the government may lose the case, complicating potential remedial measures [1][2] Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Predictions - The Supreme Court is expected to rule in early January on whether the government has the authority to impose broad "reciprocal tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2] - Goldman Sachs reports that based on the questioning during oral arguments, the Court is "likely" to rule much of the tariffs imposed this year as illegal [2] - The two core cases under review challenge whether the President overstepped constitutional boundaries by using IEEPA to exercise Congress's exclusive taxing power [2] Group 2: Government Response and Internal Dynamics - There is a stark contrast in public statements within the White House, with President Trump expressing urgency and concern, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin attempts to project confidence, suggesting backup plans exist [2] - Mnuchin acknowledges that overturning the tariffs could lead to a "fiscal disaster," yet he also claims the government has alternative revenue-raising options [2] Group 3: Alternative Legal Frameworks - Legal experts indicate that any alternative trade regulations to rebuild the tariff system would face significant legal and political hurdles [3] - The Trade Act of 1974 allows the President to impose tariffs for severe international balance of payments deficits, but it has limitations such as being non-discriminatory and having a short effective period [4] - The Tariff Act of 1930 permits tariffs against countries that discriminate against U.S. trade, but its legal application has never been tested in court, raising questions about necessary investigations [4] Group 4: Economic Implications - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the IEEPA tariffs are overturned, the risk leans towards lower tariff rates, with an expected decline of about 2 percentage points in effective tariff rates by the end of 2026 [5] - The government has collected approximately $130 billion in tariffs through IEEPA, with ongoing monthly increases of about $20 billion, leading to potential refund issues for companies [5] Group 5: Political and Diplomatic Consequences - A legal defeat could have severe political and diplomatic repercussions for the Trump administration, including challenges to the credibility of trade agreements made under the threat of IEEPA tariffs [6] - The credibility of government officials may be undermined if the predicted turmoil does not materialize following a ruling against the tariffs, complicating the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [6]