美联储下一任主席生变，沃什的政策主张：降息+缩表

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is gaining traction, with a unique policy stance of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" being analyzed by Deutsche Bank [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Kevin Hassett, initially seen as a frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chair position, is facing resistance from Trump allies, leading to a decline in his predicted success rate from over 80% to 51% [1]. - Kevin Warsh's odds have significantly increased from approximately 11% to 44% following Trump's endorsement [1]. Group 2: Warsh's Background and Experience - Warsh, unlike Hassett who has a PhD in economics, has a legal background and extensive experience in both public and private sectors, including a tenure as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [3][4]. - He has been critical of the Federal Reserve's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [3][6]. Group 3: Warsh's Critique of QE and Policy - Warsh has expressed concerns that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, suggesting that the Fed's actions have distorted market signals [6][7]. - He has criticized the Fed's reliance on data and forward guidance, asserting that these tools have limited effectiveness in normal economic conditions [9][10]. Group 4: Future Policy Implications - Deutsche Bank notes that while Warsh advocates for rate cuts, he is not inherently dovish and has previously held hawkish views, particularly regarding balance sheet issues [11][12]. - The feasibility of his proposed policies, such as reducing the Fed's balance sheet while lowering interest rates, hinges on regulatory reforms that lessen banks' reserve requirements [12]. - The market is expected to scrutinize the independence of the new Fed Chair amid pressures for significant rate cuts from Trump, with skepticism about immediate policy shifts following the leadership transition [13].