STARTRADER：澳元连跌五日，受加息预期与国内数据影响

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has declined against the US dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive day, fluctuating around 0.6630 [1] - Expectations for an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are rising, which may limit the decline of the AUD and provide support [3] - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank have raised their interest rate hike expectations, suggesting that the RBA will initiate tightening policies earlier than previously predicted [3] Group 2 - Market pricing indicates a 28% probability of an RBA rate hike in February and nearly 41% in March, with the August hike fully priced in [3] - Economic data shows a mixed picture: the manufacturing PMI rose from 51.6 to 52.2, while the services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.0, indicating resilience in the industrial sector but a weakening overall economic growth momentum [3] - November employment data revealed a stable unemployment rate of 4.3%, below the 4.4% market expectation, but a decrease of 21,300 jobs, significantly lower than the expected increase of 20,000 [3] Group 3 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is significantly influenced by the USD, which is currently fluctuating around 98.20 [4] - Divergent economic data from the US shows non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [4] - The mixed economic data has led to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the policy path for 2026, affecting the USD and indirectly impacting the AUD [4] Group 4 - China's economic data also indirectly affects the AUD, with November retail sales growing by 1.3%, below the 2.9% expectation, and fixed asset investment declining by 2.6%, greater than the anticipated 2.3% [4] - The AUD/USD is currently within an upward channel, maintaining a bullish structure [5] - The exchange rate is fluctuating near the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), with short-term momentum appearing neutral [7] Group 5 - If the exchange rate holds above the support level of 0.6620, a rebound is possible; however, a drop below this support may lead to testing the six-month low of 0.6414 [7] - Key resistance levels include the three-month high of 0.6685 and the high of 0.6707 since October 2024, with a potential test of the upper boundary of the upward channel at 0.6740 [7]