Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-17 03:28Core Viewpoint - Shenyin Wanguo has initiated coverage on China Railway Construction (601186) with a "Buy" rating, indicating stable industry investment expectations for 2026 despite pressures in infrastructure and other sectors [1] Industry Summary - Investment in the industry is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly advancement of local government debt reduction and the implementation of central "two重" projects [2] - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed this year, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate facing challenges, but certain sub-sectors may benefit from national strategies [2] Company Summary - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a total of 8.10 trillion yuan in backlog contracts as of Q3 2025, ensuring long-term stable growth [3] - New contract amounts from 2021 to 2025 Q1-3 show a mixed performance, with a notable increase in emerging business sectors such as green environmental projects and logistics [3] - The company’s revenue and profit have faced pressure due to local government debt and the downturn in the real estate sector, with Q1-3 2025 revenue at 728.4 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [4] - The company has implemented a three-year plan to control financial metrics, resulting in improved cash flow and a better aging structure of accounts receivable [4] Valuation Summary - The H-share of China Railway Construction is significantly discounted compared to A-shares, with H-share PE (TTM) at 3.6X and PB at 0.25X, while A-share PE is at 5.5X and PB at 0.43X [5] - The dividend yield for H-shares is more attractive at 5.93% compared to 3.87% for A-shares, with cash dividends distributed from 2021 to 2024 showing a steady increase [5]