SHANXI SECURITIES(SZ:002500) 智通财经网·2025-12-17 03:28Core Viewpoint - The report from Shanxi Securities highlights a focus on the recovery of coal profitability, noting a shift in coal prices from rising to falling in November, with seasonal price trends consistent across 2023, 2024, and 2025, indicating "not a dull off-season" and "not a strong peak season" [1][5]. Supply - From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 4.402 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but the growth rate is marginally declining. In November alone, the output was 427 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.93% [1]. Demand - The terminal demand has been on a downward trend from January to November 2025, with fixed asset investment decreasing by 2.6% year-on-year. Specific sectors showed varied performance: manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1%, and real estate investment fell by 15.9%. Cumulative growth rates for electricity generation, coke, pig iron, and cement were -0.7%, 3.2%, -2.3%, and -6.9% respectively [2]. Imports - Coal imports saw a month-on-month decline in November, maintaining a contraction trend from January to November 2025, with cumulative imports at 432 million tons, down 12.0% year-on-year. November's imports were 44.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% but a month-on-month increase of 5.55% [3]. Prices - In November, coal prices unexpectedly increased month-on-month. Despite adjustments in average prices for Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal, Jingtang port coking coal, and Tianjin port secondary metallurgical coke since the beginning of 2025, all three categories saw month-on-month price increases in November [4]. Commentary - Coal prices shifted from rising to falling in November, primarily due to power plants completing their inventory replenishment. The seasonal price trends for 2023, 2024, and 2025 show similar patterns, indicating a need for mean reversion after previous price surges. The report emphasizes that the core macro goal of reversing deflation remains unchanged, suggesting that a balanced approach to supply control in the short term and demand recovery in the medium to long term is necessary. The recent rapid decline in coal prices has raised market concerns, but the ongoing focus on reversing deflation is expected to influence future policy directions positively [5].