惠誉维持对波兰2026年GDP增长3.2%的预测，并预计2026年将再次降息

Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains Poland's GDP growth forecast at 3.2% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the monetary policy committee in both years [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - The implementation of projects funded by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) has been slow, leading to only a moderate recovery in investment activity so far [1] - RRF-funded investments are expected to have a greater impact on economic growth in 2026 [1] - Bank loan growth continues to improve, driven by the corporate sector [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has been lower than expected, with the overall inflation rate dropping to 2.4% in November [1] - Core inflation is also gradually decreasing, reaching 3% in October [1] Group 3: Credit Ratings - Among the three major rating agencies, Moody's has the highest credit rating for Poland at "A2" [1] - Fitch and S&P have rated Poland at "A-", one level lower than Moody's [1] - In the recent fall rating adjustments, Fitch and Moody's changed Poland's rating outlook from stable to negative, while S&P maintained a stable outlook [1]