自然资源保护协会：2025年分布式储能发展商业模式研究报告

Core Insights - The report by the Natural Resources Defense Council highlights the rapid development of distributed energy storage in China, driven by the dual carbon goals, with installed capacity increasing from 570 MW in 2019 to 3,638 MW by Q3 2025, primarily using lithium-ion batteries [10][11]. Group 1: Domestic Development of Distributed Energy Storage - From 2019 to Q3 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of distributed energy storage grew from 570 MW to 3,638 MW, with lithium-ion batteries accounting for 92.77% of the technology used [10][21]. - The primary application scenario for distributed energy storage is commercial and industrial energy storage, which constitutes 68.70% of the total, followed by grid-side storage at 8.30% and renewable energy storage at 7.09% [24][28]. - Economic development in provinces like Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang has led to higher installed capacities due to significant price differences between peak and off-peak electricity [25][28]. Group 2: International Comparison of Business Models - In contrast to China, countries like the USA, Germany, and Australia have successfully promoted household energy storage through strong fiscal incentives, high residential electricity prices, and participation in virtual power plants [10][11]. - The USA offers investment tax credits and local subsidies, while Germany exempts energy storage from VAT and provides subsidies for solar storage systems, significantly lowering initial investment costs [29][35]. - Australia has introduced tax deductions for household battery systems, which can reduce investment costs by 25-35%, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage [40]. Group 3: Business Model Analysis - The report identifies six core business models for distributed energy storage in China, including commercial and industrial energy storage, distributed photovoltaic storage, green electricity direct connection, and virtual power plants [11][14]. - The commercial and industrial energy storage model primarily relies on contract energy management, with revenue generated from arbitrage of peak and off-peak electricity prices [2][48]. - The report suggests phased recommendations for scaling up distributed energy storage, emphasizing the need for improved demand response mechanisms and safety standards in the short term, and deeper electricity market reforms in the long term [11][14].