TMGM外汇平台：纽元兑美元周三下跌，市场观望美国通胀数据

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is experiencing slight declines against the US dollar (USD) due to mixed fundamental factors, with a cautious market sentiment prevailing [1]. Group 1: Economic Influences - Recent macroeconomic data from China has negatively impacted the NZD, as China is a key trading partner for New Zealand, raising concerns about risk appetite for currencies like the NZD [1]. - The overall weakness in global stock markets has intensified risk aversion, leading to a shift of funds from risk assets to safe-haven assets, further pressuring the NZD/USD pair [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy stance is providing crucial support for the NZD, with Governor Adrian Orr indicating that the official cash rate will remain at 2.25% for an extended period if economic conditions align with expectations [2]. - This hawkish signal from the RBNZ contrasts with market expectations for the Federal Reserve, which anticipates potential rate cuts in 2026, giving the NZD a relative advantage [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent upward momentum of the USD is also constrained by expectations of a dovish successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, causing USD bulls to hesitate in making aggressive bets [4]. - Traders are closely monitoring two key signals: comments from core members of the Federal Open Market Committee and upcoming US consumer inflation data, which will shape market perceptions of future Federal Reserve policy [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators and capital flows suggest that the NZD is showing signs of bottom-fishing interest in the 0.5755 to 0.5760 range, limiting the extent of its recent pullback from a multi-month high of 0.5830 [6]. - The short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair will heavily depend on US inflation data and central bank policy signals, with ongoing competition between supportive policy divergence and risk sentiment suppression expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern [7].