Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-17 04:43Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Oracle's stock price, which fell by 13% on December 11, 2023, reflects deeper issues within the AI industry, indicating a shift from a phase of aggressive investment to a more cautious approach focused on risk assessment and cost control, signaling the potential bursting of the AI valuation bubble [1][4]. Financial Performance - Oracle's Q2 FY2025 revenue was reported at $16.06 billion, below the expected $16.21 billion, and adjusted revenue was $6.7 billion, also missing the Wall Street estimate of $6.8 billion [3]. - The company's guidance for Q3 FY2025 projected adjusted earnings per share between $1.64 and $1.68, significantly lower than the analyst estimate of $1.72, with revenue growth expectations of 16% to 18%, below the market's optimistic forecast of 19.4% [3]. Market Reaction - The drop in Oracle's stock triggered a chain reaction affecting other AI-related stocks, including Nvidia, AMD, and Micron, which saw declines between 3.1% and 4.2%, ultimately dragging the Nasdaq index to its lowest point in a week [1][3]. AI Industry Dynamics - The AI industry's capital frenzy has inflated valuations of leading companies, with Nvidia becoming the first company to surpass a $5 trillion market cap and OpenAI's valuation skyrocketing from $157 billion in October 2024 to $500 billion by October 2025 [5]. - This valuation surge is not supported by solid profitability but rather by a "value internal cycle" among major players like OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle, creating a disconnect between inflated demand expectations and actual market needs [7][8]. Investment and Spending Trends - Oracle's significant investment in AI, including a $40 billion deal with Nvidia for 400,000 GPUs, exemplifies the artificial demand signals being sent to the market, which have led to inflated valuations [7]. - The AI sector is experiencing a shift towards a "rational pricing phase," with companies like Amazon and Microsoft planning substantial capital expenditures in AI, raising concerns about the sustainability of such investments [10][13]. Financial Pressures and Risks - Oracle has reportedly consumed around $10 billion of its cash reserves in the first half of FY2025 due to heavy investments in AI, raising concerns about its financial stability and the potential for a significant market cap loss [10]. - The AI industry's reliance on high capital expenditures without corresponding revenue generation has created a precarious financial environment, with predictions of a $500 billion operating loss for OpenAI by 2030 [9][10]. Emerging Financial Mechanisms - A new financial cycle is emerging in the AI sector, characterized by the use of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to facilitate capital flow without creating substantial commercial value, resembling a "Ponzi scheme" [15][19]. - This mechanism involves a closed loop where funds circulate among tech companies and financial institutions, often relying on new debt to pay off old debt, further obscuring the lack of real profitability [19][20]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is growing skepticism in the market regarding the AI industry's ability to convert high capital investments into sustainable profits, with many investors shifting towards risk management strategies such as credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against potential losses [26][27]. - The AI sector is transitioning from a focus on rapid expansion to a more sustainable model that emphasizes efficiency and the integration of technological value with commercial viability, marking a critical juncture in its development [27].