如何开展长寿风险管理？业内人士这样说……

Core Insights - Longevity is a significant indicator of social progress and development, but managing and diversifying longevity risks presents new challenges for society [1] - Longevity risk refers to the financial pressure arising from individuals or groups living longer than expected, impacting pension and insurance obligations [1] - The commercial annuity insurance market, a tool for hedging longevity risk, faces substantial challenges due to the accelerating aging trend and interest rate changes [1][2] Group 1: Longevity Risk Overview - As of the end of 2024, the elderly population aged 60 and above in China is projected to reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [1] - The dependency ratio for the population aged 65 and above is 22.8%, indicating a growing financial burden on the working-age population [1] - The insurance industry is urged to adopt a multi-faceted approach to address longevity risk, including precise pricing and risk management [2] Group 2: International Practices and Innovations - In the UK, pension plans hold over £3 trillion in assets and are exploring de-risking solutions, with the market for risk transfer transactions expected to reach £70 billion by 2025 [3] - The concept of longevity risk swaps, where direct insurers transfer longevity risk to reinsurers, has been practiced in Europe since the mid-2000s [3] - Hong Kong's insurance industry is developing Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) to transfer low-frequency, high-loss risks to the capital market [4][5] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations for China - China faces challenges in implementing longevity risk transfer tools, including data availability, regulatory environment, and market maturity [7] - Recommendations include establishing a mortality index, conducting pilot programs under regulatory sandboxes, starting with simpler products, and fostering a supportive market ecosystem [7] - The development of a mortality improvement rate prediction model tailored to China's data characteristics is underway, which is crucial for managing longevity risk [8]