抛售15吨黄金救急，军费烧钱压力大，越打越富也撑不住？

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Central Bank's decision to sell 15 tons of gold in late November 2025 marks a significant shift in its financial strategy, indicating severe fiscal challenges and a potential loss of trust in the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Situation - The Russian government faced a budget deficit of 4.2 trillion rubles in the first ten months of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year, prompting the Central Bank to sell gold to fill budget gaps [3]. - The Central Bank's gold reserves have decreased from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons, with 232.6 tons sold in recent years, highlighting a critical depletion of financial buffers [1][3]. - The external environment is challenging, with $300 billion in assets frozen abroad, leading to reliance on money printing and tax increases to cover deficits, which in turn drives inflation above 8% [3][10]. Group 2: Military and Economic Impact - Military expenditures have surged, with daily costs reaching 453 billion rubles, the highest since the Soviet Union's dissolution, consuming a significant portion of the budget [6][8]. - The Russian economy is experiencing a decline in oil export revenues, with a drop of $3.6 billion year-on-year, exacerbating fiscal pressures [6][10]. - The military's personnel costs have escalated dramatically, with salaries for contract soldiers increasing from 20,000 rubles to 260,000 rubles, further straining the budget [8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The strategy of selling gold is viewed as a temporary fix that undermines national creditworthiness and increases future financing costs, with the National Wealth Fund shrinking from $113.5 billion in 2022 to $51.6 billion [10][13]. - The ongoing conflict and sanctions have limited Russia's export and financial channels, with predictions of a significant drop in oil revenues, indicating a bleak fiscal outlook [11][13]. - The systemic issues are reflected in the growing number of regions facing budget deficits, totaling 169.2 billion rubles, suggesting widespread economic distress [13].