Core Insights - The central economic work conference indicates that under a stable macro environment, there is still absolute upside potential for bank stock prices [1] - The performance of yield stocks relative to the banking index may weaken next year due to more cautious policy support and stable bond yields, which limit dividend spread [1] Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - JPMorgan expects the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates by 10 basis points in both the first and second halves of next year, and to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points in Q1 2026 to alleviate liquidity pressure and support bank profit margins [1] - The market anticipates a nearly 20 basis point reduction in the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 2026 [1] Regulatory Environment and Risk Management - Financial regulatory agencies will continue to focus on risk prevention, which helps reduce the likelihood of tail risk events [1] - The anti-involution movement is expected to encourage banks to strengthen pricing discipline, supporting the outlook for net interest margins [1] Sector Support and Competitive Advantage - There will be increased support for consumption and technology finance, with some joint-stock banks having competitive advantages in these areas [1]
摩根大通：内银股仍有绝对上升空间，预期明年首季将降准50个基点
Ge Long Hui·2025-12-17 05:12