欧洲风云突变，德俄火药味浓！

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the need for European countries to collectively support Ukraine against Russia, weighing the immediate costs against potential future expenses if Russia wins [1] - A risk assessment company from Norway estimates that supporting Ukraine could cost Europe between €522 billion and €838 billion annually, while rearming against a victorious Russia could cost between €1.2 trillion and €1.6 trillion [3] - Currently, Ukraine requires approximately €200 billion in annual support, which is less than 1% of Europe's GDP, and frozen Russian assets amount to about €300 billion, making the decision to support Ukraine less complex [5] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz has expressed willingness to collaborate with Belgium to utilize frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, highlighting the economic rationale behind this decision [5] - Merz has called for all European nations to support Belgium in providing necessary security assurances to expedite the handling of frozen Russian assets and to develop a substantial loan compensation plan for Kyiv [7] - The European Commission aims to reach a consensus with Belgium by December 18 on a final compensation loan plan for Ukraine, asserting that the risks of using frozen Russian assets are minimal compared to the threat posed by Russia [9]