白银再创新高，年内大涨超125%成黑马

Core Insights - The silver market has reached a historic moment with significant price increases in both domestic and international markets, with Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures hitting a record high of 15,477 yuan per kilogram, up over 4% [1] - Internationally, COMEX silver surged over 4%, peaking at $66.27 per ounce, while London silver also reached a high of $66.068 per ounce, both marking new highs since their listings and showing year-to-date increases exceeding 125%, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 64% rise [1] Market Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to strong overseas demand for physical silver, which is primarily being stockpiled rather than flowing into industrial use, creating a concentrated squeeze effect [4] - Market sentiment remains bullish, with predictions suggesting that while the emotional trading may stabilize after Q1 2026, there is still upward momentum above $60 in the short term, with potential new price levels between $50 and $60 [4] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - A structural supply-demand gap is providing solid support for rising silver prices, with global silver demand projected to reach 36,207 tons in 2024, of which industrial demand accounts for 58.5% [5] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrial silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is expected to be 5.4%, contributing to 98% of the total increase in silver demand during this period [5] - In contrast, silver supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of only 1.2% from 2024 to 2027, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap, which is expected to widen from 4,498 tons in 2025 to 6,791 tons by 2027 [5] Regulatory Actions - In response to the overheated silver market, regulatory authorities have adjusted trading margins and price limits for silver futures contracts to manage volatility [6] - Recommendations for investors include prioritizing more stable investments like gold or exploring platinum and palladium, while advising caution in the silver market due to increased volatility [6]