【付鹏说｜市场观察】付鹏的财经世界 2026市场的核心主线——视频链接：要点梳理：美股已进入"高估值+高波动"的状态，上游通胀与下游盈利的博弈成为市场核心矛盾。展望2026，利率曲线的走向将直接取决于AI应用端的落地情况。当前美股市场的核心矛盾并非美联储降息政策本身...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has entered a state of "high valuation + high volatility," with the core contradiction being the interplay between upstream inflation and downstream profitability [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the trajectory of the interest rate curve will be directly influenced by the implementation of AI applications [1] - The current core contradiction in the U.S. stock market is not the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy or short-term fluctuations in macro employment data, but rather the fundamental issue of the "matching degree between upstream investment and downstream output in the AI industry chain" [1] Group 2 - The decline in market stability is primarily due to the development bottleneck in the AI industry chain, where large-scale capital expenditure has been realized upstream, but the commercial value at the downstream application end remains uncertain [1] - This industrial contradiction perfectly mirrors the structural characteristics of the interest rate curve: from the Federal Reserve's perspective, short-term rates reflect concerns about the labor market, while long-term rates indicate worries about inflation [1] - The concept of "preventive interest rate cuts" is based on the logic of preventing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from breaking below the lower bound of a converging triangle; if short-term rates continue to decline and pull long-term rates down simultaneously, it will signal an economic recession, leading to a severe impact on the U.S. stock market [1]