家电ETF（159996）涨超1.5%，看好家电出口链机会

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels combined with recovering demand support a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the home appliance export chain [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhances the outlook for recovery in U.S. real estate and durable goods demand [1] - Channel inventory has decreased to low levels, leading to a resonance between restocking and demand [1] Group 2: Export and Domestic Sales Outlook - In Q1 2025, home appliance exports are expected to see high growth, while Q2 will experience a decline due to tariff disruptions, and Q3 will face challenges from high base figures and slower overseas production ramp-up [1] - Starting from Q2 2026, foreign sales are projected to enter a lower base period, with expectations that export performance will surpass domestic sales and accelerate recovery from Q2 [1] Group 3: Domestic Sales Challenges - Domestic sales of home appliances are anticipated to face pressure due to the reduction of national subsidies and high base figures, with a trend of lower performance initially followed by improvement later [1] Group 4: ETF and Index Information - The home appliance ETF (159996) tracks the home appliance index (930697), which includes listed companies involved in the manufacturing and sales of white goods, black goods, and kitchen appliances [1] - The index constituents exhibit significant consumer attributes and brand effects, effectively reflecting the overall development trends and market dynamics of the home appliance industry [1]