Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-17 06:55Core Viewpoint - The optical module market is experiencing rapid growth driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power, with price changes reflecting the industry's healthy development rather than simple supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price changes in the optical module industry are driven by technological iteration, cost control, and product structure optimization, rather than just supply and demand [2]. - The typical lifecycle of optical modules has shortened, with the iteration cycle for 800G and 1.6T modules reduced from 3-4 years to 1-2 years, indicating a rapid advancement in technology [2]. - The expected scale commercialization of 1.6T optical modules is projected to begin in 2026, with significant demand growth anticipated [2][8]. Group 2: Profitability and Competition - Leading optical module companies can maintain or even improve their profitability despite price declines due to healthy pricing dynamics and cost reductions [2][3]. - The focus of competition in the optical module industry has shifted from individual product pricing to continuous innovation and comprehensive solution offerings [4][6]. - Major optical module manufacturers are establishing long-term strategic partnerships with overseas cloud service providers and AI chip leaders, enhancing their competitive edge [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The AI computing investment is expected to drive significant growth in the communication sector, with projections indicating that the optical module market will outperform the broader market [7]. - The demand for 1.6T optical modules has been revised upwards, with total industry demand expected to increase from 1 million to 2 million units due to rapid growth in AI training and inference network bandwidth requirements [8]. - The upcoming spring market is anticipated to see a rally driven by AI computing and storage chains, with specific focus on companies benefiting from overseas AI demand [9].