全球锂供应难以满足电动汽车需求缺口

Group 1 - The report by Kearney and the World Economic Forum indicates that global lithium supply can only meet one-third (35%) of the projected demand by 2035 [1][2] - It warns that the pace of electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is outstripping the supply of necessary mineral resources [2] - Lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, with demand for rare earth elements and copper needing to increase by over 50% to meet expected needs [2][3] Group 2 - Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35-45% of the projected lithium and graphite demand [3] - Global electric vehicle demand is expected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, with electric vehicles accounting for over 40% of new car sales by 2030 [3] - The report highlights a significant time mismatch in the value chain, as battery and motor factories can scale production in 1-3 years, while new mining projects typically require 10-20 years for development [3][4] Group 3 - Delays in grid construction will have a cascading effect, slowing down the deployment of electric vehicle charging networks, renewable energy projects, and new digital facilities [4] - The report emphasizes the urgent need for bold supply-side investments and smarter demand-side actions to ensure the resilience of critical mineral supply chains [4] Group 4 - Global data center capacity is projected to triple by 2035, supported by investments ranging from $3 trillion to $7 trillion before 2030 [4] - Data centers will consume 6% of global gallium resources and 2.4% of germanium resources by 2035, which are essential for semiconductors and sensors [4] Group 5 - The supply risks for gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements are exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, market financing uncertainties, and infrastructure bottlenecks [5][6] - The current challenge is not the availability of materials but the actual access to these materials, as global demand for data centers and semiconductor capacity expands [6] Group 6 - The European battery industry is rapidly expanding, with over €82 billion committed to building gigafactories, primarily from EU member states [6][7] - By 2030, these projects are expected to achieve an annual production capacity exceeding 1.2 terawatt-hours, enabling Europe to meet its own demand and become a global exporter [7] Group 7 - Any weakening of EU automotive emission standards could undermine investment confidence in the battery industry, jeopardizing the foundational agreements that ensure long-term demand [7] - The report warns that without stable demand policies, Europe risks becoming dependent on imported battery materials, losing the opportunity to establish a competitive and autonomous industrial base [7]