从12.6万跌到8.6万，比特币或遭历史第四次年度跌势，7万成关键支撑?

Group 1 - Bitcoin is experiencing its fourth annual decline, the first without a major scandal or industry collapse, with a current price around $86,700 and a year-to-date drop of approximately 7% [1] - The recent downturn follows a peak of over $126,000 in early October, leading to a significant sell-off and a lack of market stability, with low trading volumes and investor confidence waning [1][2] - Institutional participation has expanded since the last major market crash in 2022, and regulatory frameworks are maturing, yet the market remains fragile due to extreme leverage issues [4][5] Group 2 - Despite positive developments such as Trump's prioritization of the crypto sector and significant legislative progress, Bitcoin's price has not reflected these favorable conditions, leading to unexpected bearish trends [2][5] - The forced liquidation of $19 billion in leveraged positions on October 10 triggered chaos in the crypto market, with major holders beginning to sell off their assets [4][5] - Bitcoin's performance has decoupled from traditional stock markets, with the S&P 500 index rising 16% year-to-date, while Bitcoin struggles to maintain its value [5] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that previous annual declines in Bitcoin's price were linked to significant market-shaking events, unlike the current situation which is characterized by a lack of such incidents [7] - The current market may be undergoing a period of time correction rather than a drastic price adjustment, with predictions suggesting Bitcoin could fluctuate between $70,000 and $100,000 [9]