又创新高！白银年内涨超125%成黑马 机构解读后市

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has reached historic highs, with prices increasing over 125% this year, significantly outperforming gold, which has risen around 64% during the same period [1]. Market Performance - On December 17, silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange peaked at 15,477 yuan per kilogram, marking a rise of over 4% and setting a record since the contract's inception [1]. - In the international market, COMEX silver prices surged over 3%, reaching a peak of $65.909 per ounce, while London silver also hit a high of $66.005 per ounce [1]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to strong overseas demand for physical silver, which is currently being hoarded rather than flowing into industrial use, creating a concentrated squeeze effect [1]. - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by speculative activities, contributing to the upward pressure on silver prices [1]. Supply and Demand Outlook - A structural supply-demand gap is expected to support silver prices, with global silver demand projected to reach 36,207 tons in 2024, of which industrial demand will account for 58.5% [2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrial silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is estimated at 5.4%, contributing to 98% of the total growth in silver demand during this period [2]. - On the supply side, the CAGR for global silver supply from 2024 to 2027 is forecasted to be only 1.2%, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap from 4,498 tons in 2025 to 6,791 tons by 2027 [2]. Regulatory Actions - In response to the overheated silver market, regulatory authorities have adjusted margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts [3]. - The margin for holding positions in the AG2602 silver futures contract has been set at 16%, with a general trading margin of 17% [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider more stable alternatives like gold or explore new products such as platinum and palladium, as current silver volatility may pose risks [3].