决议前夕，高市政府政策小组委员：日本央行应避免过早加息

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) regarding monetary policy is becoming apparent, with calls for caution against premature interest rate hikes [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Strategy - Former BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Takeda warns against early rate hikes, emphasizing the need to raise the neutral interest rate through fiscal policy and growth strategies first [1][2]. - Takeda's comments reflect a shift towards "Kishida Economics," focusing on strengthening the supply side of the economy, which is a departure from previous policies [2]. - The market anticipates a rate increase to 0.75% at the upcoming BOJ meeting, marking the first hike since January, with all surveyed analysts expecting a rate increase this month [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Emphasis - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida outlines a vision for fiscal policy that prioritizes economic stimulation over austerity, aiming to enhance corporate profits and household incomes through strategic fiscal spending [3]. - Kishida's approach is designed to create a sustainable fiscal policy and social welfare system, countering market concerns about fiscal discipline [3]. - The consensus among economists indicates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the BOJ's December meeting, reflecting strong market expectations [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Takeda holds a moderate view on inflation, suggesting that as energy and food costs stabilize, inflation may slow down and potentially fall below 2% [2]. - Concerns about aggressive fiscal expansion leading to market turmoil, similar to the "Truss Shock" in the UK, are dismissed by Takeda, who argues that Japan's fiscal situation is currently sound [2].