罗志恒详解“十五五”时期如何提高居民消费率

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" and aims to boost consumption and optimize supply as primary tasks for the upcoming year [1] Current Situation: Low Consumption Rate and Structural Optimization Needed - In 2023, China's household consumption rate is approximately 39.6%, significantly lower than the US rate of nearly 68%, with a gap of about 28 percentage points [2] - The projected household consumption rate for 2024 is 39.9%, with historical data indicating that it has mostly been above 40% since 1949, peaking over 60% in the 1950s and 1960s [2] - In terms of structure, the proportion of goods consumption in GDP is similar between China (21.5%) and the US (21.4%), but the difference lies in service consumption, which is currently at 46.1% in China, still below the expected level for its economic development stage [2] Pathways: Collaborative Efforts from Government, Enterprises, and Residents - Five main challenges to increasing household consumption rate include: improving consumer capacity, enhancing social security systems, insufficient urbanization of migrant populations, inadequate high-quality service supply, and long working hours for laborers [4] - To address these challenges, the government should create a favorable consumption environment, while enterprises need to provide higher quality goods and services to stimulate demand [5] - Specific government actions suggested include reforming the tax system to shift from a "production-based" to a "consumption-based" principle, and focusing fiscal policies on residents and families rather than solely on enterprises [5] Enhancing Consumer Confidence - To encourage residents to spend, it is essential to improve the social security system, including linking state-owned assets to social security funding and reforming pension systems to provide a minimum standard for all [6] - Optimizing service and product supply is also crucial, with suggestions to introduce additional public holidays to balance supply and demand, which could also create more job opportunities for low-income groups [6] - The overarching goal is to enhance the quality of life and welfare of the population, reflecting a people-centered development philosophy [6]