3 6 Ke·2025-12-17 08:43Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of a 51% stake in Green Valley Pharmaceutical by Fosun Pharma aims to revive the controversial Alzheimer's drug, 甘露特钠胶囊 (known as "971"), which had previously faced significant skepticism regarding its efficacy and was halted due to unmet post-marketing clinical trial requirements [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Fosun Pharma announced an investment of approximately 1.412 billion yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Green Valley Pharmaceutical [1]. - This acquisition marks the first major move by the newly appointed chairman of Fosun Pharma, Chen Yuqing, since taking office in April 2025 [2]. - Following the announcement, Fosun Pharma's stock experienced a decline, with a drop of 4.22% in A-shares and 5.81% in Hong Kong shares on December 16 [2]. Group 2: Clinical Trial Plans - Fosun Pharma plans to conduct post-marketing confirmatory clinical trials for 971, with the goal of obtaining approval by mid-2029 and entering medical insurance by 2030 [2][3]. - The estimated cost for the domestic Phase III clinical trials is around 685 million yuan, with plans for potential international multi-center trials if conditions are favorable [3]. - The clinical trial aims to enroll over 1,900 patients and will adhere to the guidelines set by the National Medical Products Administration [3]. Group 3: Market Potential - The target population for 971 is estimated to be around 3.56 million, with a projected market penetration rate of 22% [4]. - If approved by mid-2029 and included in medical insurance by 2030, the peak sales for 971 are expected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by 2035 [4]. - In a scenario where the drug is not included in medical insurance, sales in 2030 are anticipated to exceed 1 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Efficacy Controversies - The efficacy of 971 has been heavily debated, with notable criticisms regarding its mechanism of action and clinical trial data [5][6]. - Despite the controversies, Fosun Pharma maintains confidence in the drug's effectiveness, citing data from over 800 patients showing that 971 outperformed placebo [6]. - The drug's commercial value remains significant, with patients reportedly seeking it at prices significantly higher than previous insurance-covered rates [8]. Group 5: Company Background - Green Valley Pharmaceutical, founded by Lü Songtao in 2018, has faced scrutiny due to past controversies surrounding its products [9][10]. - The company reported revenues of 572 million yuan in 2024, but faced significant losses in 2025 due to the suspension of 971 [10]. - Following the acquisition, Green Valley will operate as a subsidiary of Fosun Pharma, with its future clinical trial efforts being a core focus [10].