非农数据反复 + 政策迷雾：Wmax 前瞻美国经济与美联储路径

Core Insights - The U.S. job market presents a complex picture with November non-farm data exceeding expectations but revealing underlying concerns [2][3] - Wmax's analysis indicates a divergence in employment data, with a notable increase in non-farm employment but rising unemployment rates and stagnant wage growth [3][6] Employment Data Analysis - November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, providing a temporary boost to the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [3] - Average hourly wage growth was recorded at 3.5% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month, both below market expectations and indicating weak employment quality and income growth [3] Data Revision and Trends - October's non-farm employment figures were revised down to a decrease of 105,000, the largest drop since late 2020, significantly exceeding the expected decline of 25,000 [6] - The revisions were influenced by over 150,000 federal employees accepting buyouts, reflecting the impact of government downsizing [6] - Retail sales in October showed no growth, attributed to weak auto sales, further confirming the negative effects of employment fluctuations on consumer spending [6] Data Collection Adjustments - The release of employment data was affected by a government shutdown, leading to extended data collection periods which improved collection rates [7] - Collection rates reached 80.2% for September and over 73% for October and November, the highest in five years [7] - Wmax highlights the trade-off between data accuracy and timeliness, echoing concerns from former Labor Statistics officials regarding the implications of delayed data [7] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - Following the employment and retail sales data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with the probability of a January rate cut rising from 22% to 31% [10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected total easing of 58 basis points for the year [10] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between implementing easing measures to prevent economic slowdown and managing inflation risks [12] Future Economic Outlook - Wmax emphasizes the need for investors to consider multiple factors beyond single-month data to gauge economic trends accurately [13] - Key variables include the trend of data revisions, adjustments in statistical methods, and real demand changes at the industry level [13] - The upcoming months will clarify the U.S. economic landscape as annual data revisions and Federal Reserve meetings unfold, impacting global financial markets [13]