KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-17 08:54Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai, once regarded as "liquid gold," has significantly declined, dropping below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle by the end of 2025, indicating a profound challenge to the high-end liquor industry's reliance on "financial attributes" and "channel inventory" growth models, leading to a necessary adjustment in brand value and business models [1][6]. Group 1: Price Decline and Market Pressures - The primary reason for the price decline is a significant shrinkage in terminal demand, particularly in core consumption scenarios such as business banquets and high-end gifts, which have weakened the effectiveness of Moutai as a "social currency" [2][7]. - High inventory levels among distributors have become a critical issue, with reports indicating that cash flow pressures have led to aggressive sell-offs, creating a cycle of price drops and further sell-offs [2][8]. - The fundamental growth logic of Moutai is under threat, as it has transitioned from being viewed as a stable investment to a depreciating asset, exacerbating market sell-off pressures [8][10]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Strategic Adjustments - The price drop of leading products like Moutai has triggered a series of chain reactions, particularly affecting the stability of the distribution network, with the phenomenon of wholesale prices falling below factory prices leading to potential losses for distributors [9]. - The ongoing price decline poses a threat to Moutai's high-end brand positioning, as a stable price system is crucial for maintaining brand image and value perception [9]. - In response to these challenges, leading liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, have initiated a "price stabilization defense," implementing measures such as reducing market supply and shifting focus from inventory-driven sales to consumer-centric strategies [9][10].