百利好晚盘分析：非农有喜有忧 就业持续变冷

Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a short-term increase influenced by the U.S. non-farm payroll data, reinforcing the existing upward trend, with potential for new highs in the medium term [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in corporate profit growth which may affect consumer spending [1] - The technical analysis shows a bullish outlook for gold, with a daily upward structure and support at the $4,296 level [1] Oil Market - International oil prices fell below $55 per barrel, reflecting a weak fundamental outlook, with no signs of improvement in the oversupply situation [2] - Demand remains weak, with global oil supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil in "floating storage," indicating potential supply release [2] - The oil market is facing a structural surplus, with inventory levels at a near four-year high, and the EIA's upcoming report is expected to confirm significant supply surplus [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil prices, with a possibility of short-term recovery but primarily recommending short positions [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar has maintained a weak trend in recent months, with a long-term downward trajectory expected due to declining U.S. interest rates [3] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates at 2% until at least December 18, with a likelihood of future rate hikes, suggesting potential for euro appreciation [3] Japanese Yen and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to the highest level in 30 years on December 19, increasing short-term rates from 0.5% to 0.75% due to persistent inflation above 2% [4] - Technical analysis shows signs of a potential rebound in the U.S. dollar index, with support at the 98.30 level [4] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has shown mixed performance with small fluctuations, indicating a potential start of a medium-term downward wave [5] - Short-term price action suggests a possible rebound, with resistance at the 50,170 level [5] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a bearish trend but have not significantly declined, with a potential for new highs as the market forms a consolidation pattern [6] - Support is noted at the $5.25 level [6] Market Overview - Trump is interviewing candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, including current Fed Governor Waller and former Governor Walsh [7] - Trump has imposed a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, demanding the return of oil assets to the U.S. [8] - The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [9] - Upcoming data includes the EIA's weekly oil inventory report on December 12 [10]